Abstract

: In contrast to India-Russia historic partnership, Pakistan and Russia have rarely enjoy cordial ties. However,

the recent times show that both the countries are trying their part to normalize the relationship and use those ties in to best

of their advantage. The Pak- Russian ties where are motivated by interest, uncertainty and distress caused by Indian tilt

towards US in pursuit of its interests, is another reason behind intensifying Pakistan-Russian cordiality. While both interest

and uncertainty are core features of Structural Realism. This piece of research encompasses truly a show of engagements,

reengagements and counter engagements based on these two factor

Key Words:

: Interests, Uncertainty, Pakistan, Russia, USA, India, Security Dilemma

Introduction

Putin’s policy and its vision is regaining the glory that Soviet Union used to have once. It tends to reemerge at the face of the globe again as a contender. Whereas South Asia is a core part in this regard. Resurging Russia’s foreign policy towards South Asia has remained for most of the time in history, India centric. While Pakistan remained allied with United States. . Russia and India enjoy historic partnership and also celebrated 72 anniversary of their ties, what Prime Minister Narendra Modi calls “Trust based friendship”. Although India and Russia share a past, rich of time tested partnership but Indo-Russian ties has experienced a bit divergence since 2014 when Prime Minister Modi assumed power. India and Russia collaborate on energy and on strategic front, along with diplomatic front. India has long been the leading buyer of Russian arms, and also a trusted partner to maintain Russian clout in South Asian region. While on the other hand PakRussian ties remained cold. This piece of paper will be focusing on IndoRussian ties under Prime Minister Modi. However it requires to understand Modi’s vision of diversifying India’s approach across the globe, in order to have a strategic edge over Pakistan. For this purpose, India when tilted towards US and tend to maintain ties with US, America became the leading supplier of arms to India. Thus pushed Russia on to second number. Two years later, 2016 marked USA as the leading defense partner of India (Unnikrishnan 2019). This is what made Putin’s Russia realize the divergences in Indo- Russian ties. Despite these divergences, India and Russia witnessed the peaks of partnership in more than one domain i.e. energy, strategic, international organizations and many more. Moreover it experienced moments of suspicion and trust deficit. The changing geopolitics of South Asian region (CPEC, Afghan Peace Process and the threat of terrorism from ISIS) is where highlighting Pakistan’s position, Indo- US strategic engagements made it easy for Russia to formally consider Pakistan for rapprochement, if Russia is to secure its position in Asia Pacific region. Moreover, it allowed Russia to give its Indian centric foreign policy a new touch of what Nasir Muhammad calls in his article - Pakistan Card. (Muhammad, 2019) The literature consulted shows Russian engagements in declarations and conferences hosted by Pakistan, Russian engagements in Pakistan led Peace process in Afghanistan and its interest in Chinese led Belt and Road Initiative, of which Pakistan is a core part (Pant, 2018). But all these engagements are highly reinforced by the divergences caused in Indo-Russian ties, as a result of Modi’s vision of diversifying global partnerships. Newly emerged Pak- Russian cooperations turned out to be a major irritant for India, which serves Russia’s policy goal to bring India back on line, and Russia to emerge as an important actor in Asia Pacific. Thus having a diversified influence in regional geo politics of South Asia. The recent past witnessed increased Indian engagements, new pacts and new declarations between India and Russia, but is it India’s effort to bridge the deficit? This will be seen in this paper. If yes then how much effective it will remain for Prime Minister Modi to bridge the gap caused by his own policy choices and inclinations towards USA. Moscow seems to diversify the dimensions of its involvement in South Asia, whatsoever the reasons be, but a part of those reasons will be discussed in the respective paper. The literature consulted suggests that Russian tilt towards Pakistan and its cooperation is not something worry about. Moreover these ties are not even equivalent to that of Indo- Russian ties. (Zakharov, 2017). Well this is something that I will try to figure out in this paper that is this claim made by (Zakharov, 2017) is acceptable or not? Currently Prime Minister Modi has perceived the threat well, and intends to bridge even a minor difference, which has caused its long term trusted friend inclined towards its rival. However, one thing to be discussed would be that Russia’s foreign policy towards India has seen transformation. As some scholars suggest that these PakRussian ties are not equal to that of Indo-Russian ties, then here lies the gap, if is it so, what is making India worried of loose alliance or the trust gap with Russia? That means this inequality in partnerships has something worrisome. What is that would be seen in this paper.

Problem Statement

Since, Indo-US strategic romance is increasing, leaving Russia- its long trusted partner behind and increased partnership with conventional rival, has triggered Russia to bring a transition in its foreign policy towards India. Despite having interdependence in every domain from energy to telecommunication, and from information technology to strategic engagements being largest supplier of arms to India, Russia did not feel good of Indo- US bonhomie. Thus opted Pakistan as part of its foreign policy towards South Asia and most importantly towards India. Nonetheless, still Indo-Russia ties are matchless and Pakistan Card was played well by Russia. New Delhi perceived the threat well despite the fact that Pak-Russian ties are not equal to that of Indo- Russia ties, thus leading to new ventures of cooperation

Literature Review

Since, Indo-US strategic romance is increasing, leaving Russia- its long trusted partner behind and increased partnership with conventional rival, has triggered Russia to bring a transition in its foreign policy towards India. Despite having interdependence in every domain from energy to telecommunication, and from information technology to strategic engagements being largest supplier of arms to India, Russia did not feel good of Indo- US bonhomie. Thus opted Pakistan as part of its foreign policy towards South Asia and most importantly towards India. Nonetheless, still Indo-Russia ties are matchless and Pakistan Card was played well by Russia. New Delhi perceived the threat well despite the fact that Pak-Russian ties are not equal to that of Indo- Russia ties, thus leading to new ventures of cooperationdrifts in the foreign policy priorities of both the states which is now likely to stay. However, here lies the gap that she says the priorities are transformed and differences are likely to stays but does not talk about the efforts which Prime Minister Modi is meant to do in order to resolve the issues with long term partner, specifically when it faces Pakistan factor in its ties. An article “Difficult Times ahead for RussiaIndia ties” published in The Diplomat was written by Harsh v. Pant in 2018, describes the effects of changing geopolitical realities in south Asia. However, have impact on Indo- Russian ties, including stance on Kashmir or the importance of CPEC. Here again, the author seems to have a much pessimist approach and a clear understanding of India’s foreign policy and importance of its exemplary partnership with Russia is lacking. Thus it misses to discuss the possibility of filling the gaps with new hopes and energy. 2017 article “India and Russia must work out their differences” by Sharanya Rajiv illustrates that Russia and India has come to a point where both have divergent opinions regarding India’s neighbor. Moreover, she tends to elaborate the recent trends in Russian approach towards Pakistan, and the reasons behind that is making India rework on their policy considerations. Thus the researcher ponders that how long India and Russia will base their ties on past achievements. When it says that Russia and India have different position on Pakistan to that of India’s, it surely misses that Russian interests with Pakistan are not of that capacity which Russia enjoys with India. Hence, Russia will not lose India, over Pakistan but to use Pakistan to get maximum from its partnership with India and to expand its clout in South Asia. Article “The Russia-Pakistan Rapprochement: Should India worry?” by Uma Purushothaman in 2015 takes a detailed view of Russia’s increasing interests in Pakistan and the ongoing partnerships in energy and strategic domain. The researcher thus expresses its apprehensions as far as India is concerned, thus fearing China, Russia and Pakistan encircling India; in accordance to which India needs to recraft its policy priorities.

Hypothesis

Pak-Russian ties causing displeasure for India, thus driving India to restore the warmth and bridge the differences in IndoRussian ties. • For Russia, Pakistan is counter weight to India as there is equity not equality in PakRussian ties in relation to Indo-Russian ties. • Pakistan is no replacement of India as far as ties with Russia are concerned. Therefore Pakistan needs to evaluate strategic appraisal and be realistic in foreign policy choices to get maximum out of newly formed bonhomie.

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