67 gfpr 10.31703/gfpr Global Foreign Policies Review gfpr 2788-502X 2788-5038 Humanity Publications Pakistan 393636 10.31703/gfpr.2022(V-II).06 4105 1.0 article How Narratives Helped the Taliban's Surprise Takeover of Afghanistan in 2021 Shahid Raja Wasim Conceptualization Writing – original draft PhD. Scholar, Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST) Islamabad Pakistan Corresponding Author: Raja Wasim Shahid, PhD. Scholar, Centre for International Peace and Stability (CIPS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

This study did not require formal ethics approval.

Data sharing is not applicable to this article.

 30 06 2022 06 2022 03 10 2022 5 2 Spring 52 65 03 10 2022

The authors received no specific funding for this work.

 2022 Humanity Publications This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. Full Text PDF

World witnessed strange events in Afghanistan in august 2021 when over three hundred thousand "well-equipped" Afghan Security Forces, failed to offer any meaningful resistance to the Taliban attacks. The Taliban virtually took over entire Afghanistan including the Capital Kabul in a matter of days,surprisingly without any resistance from Afghan forces. Most US and western writers and military experts blamed Afghan Forces and their civilian leadership for the collapse of resistance and in a way took the blame away from the US-led coalition. This article suggests that the Taliban's surprise and almost bloodless victory has less to do with immediate factors around August 2021. The surprise was slowly manufactured by the Taliban through their strong effort caused by the narratives, spread over two decades of the war. Such consistent narratives created an environment which caused the immediate collapse of Afghan Forces even before the US could complete evacuation out of Afghanistan.

 War on Terrorism Afghanistan Taliban Narratives US-Led Coalition Surprise views914 downloads56 html-views0 google-scholar-citations0 crossref-citations0 Content

World witnessed strange events in Afghanistan in august 2021 when over three hundred thousand "well-equipped" Afghan Security Forces, failed to offer any meaningful resistance to the Taliban attacks. The Taliban virtually took over entire Afghanistan including the Capital Kabul in a matter of days,surprisingly without any resistance from Afghan forces. Most US and western writers and military experts blamed Afghan Forces and their civilian leadership for the collapse of resistance and in a way took the blame away from the US-led coalition. This article suggests that the Taliban's surprise and almost bloodless victory has less to do with immediate factors around August 2021. The surprise was slowly manufactured by the Taliban through their strong effort caused by the narratives, spread over two decades of the war. Such consistent narratives created an environment which caused the immediate collapse of Afghan Forces even before the US could complete evacuation out of Afghanistan.

 Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.

 Ethics Statement

This study did not require formal ethics approval.

 Data Availability

Data sharing is not applicable to this article.

 Supplementary Materials Full Text PDF References Abed, F 2019 . At Least 23 Soldiers Killed in Insider Attack in Afghanistan The New York Times Abed, F. (2019). At Least 23 Soldiers Killed in Insider Attack in Afghanistan. The New York Times. Al-Khandaq, J 2018 Declaration of the Islamic Emirate about the inauguration of Al Khandaq Jihadi operations in Statements Al-Khandaq, J. (2018). Declaration of the Islamic Emirate about the inauguration of Al Khandaq Jihadi operations in Statements. http://www.alemarah-english.org/?p=280608 Allen, N F. & Waterfield, B. (2012, April 18). Pentagon condemns 'inhuman conduct' of soldiers who posed for Taliban trophy photographs, The Telegraph entagon Allen, N. F. & Waterfield, B. (2012, April 18). Pentagon condemns 'inhuman conduct' of soldiers who posed for Taliban trophy photographs, The Telegraph. Armstrong, N. J 2013 . With an eye open and a round chambered: Explaining the Afghan insider threat and its implications for sustained partnership Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding 7 3 223 240 Armstrong, N. J. (2013). With an eye open and a round chambered: Explaining the Afghan insider threat and its implications for sustained partnership. Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding, 7(3), 223-240. 10.1080/17502977.2013.783991 10.1080/17502977.2013.783991 Asey, T 2019 . The price of inequality: The dangerous rural-urban divide in Afghanistan Retrieved from Global Security Review website: rice Asey, T. (2019). The price of inequality: The dangerous rural-urban divide in Afghanistan. Retrieved from Global Security Review website: https://globalsecurityreview Azad, A 2017 . The Beginnings of Islam in Afghanistan: Conquest, Acculturation, and Islamization In Afghanistan's Islam: From Conversion to the Taliban (p. 41). University of California Press 41 Azad, A. (2017). The Beginnings of Islam in Afghanistan: Conquest, Acculturation, and Islamization. In Afghanistan's Islam: From Conversion to the Taliban (p. 41). University of California Press. Barfield, T 2010 Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History, Princeton Studies in Muslim Politics, Princeton: Princeton University Press olitical Barfield, T. (2010). Afghanistan: A Cultural and Political History, Princeton Studies in Muslim Politics, Princeton: Princeton University Press. Bari, W 2021 . How We Failed Afghanistan (And Ourselves) with HR McMaster Honestly with Bari Weiss Bari, W. (2021). How We Failed Afghanistan (And Ourselves) with HR McMaster. Honestly with Bari Weiss. https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how-we-failed-Afghanistan-and-ourselves-with-hr-mcmaster/id1570872415?i=1000532434236 BBC News 2021 The last US soldier leaves Afghanistan BBC News. (2021). The last US soldier leaves Afghanistan. https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-58390310 Berkowitz, B 2003 . Spying in the Post- September 11 World Hoover Digest, 4 ost- Berkowitz, B. (2003). Spying in the Post- September 11 World. Hoover Digest, 4. Bezhan, F 2020 The Taliban, The government, and Islamic state: Who controls what in Afghanistan? RadioFreeEurope/Radio Liberty Bezhan, F. (2020). The Taliban, The government, and Islamic state: Who controls what in Afghanistan? RadioFreeEurope/Radio Liberty. Bohannon, J 2014 The rising toll Bohannon, J. (2014). The rising toll. Bordin, J (2011, May). Crisis of Trust and Cultural Incompatibility: A Red Team Study of Mutual Perceptions of Afghan National Security Force Personnel and US Soldiers in Understanding and Mitigating the Phenomena of ANSF- Committed Fratricide-Murders. In United States. Department of the Army. United States. Department of the Army. 1-70 erceptions Bordin, J. (2011, May). Crisis of Trust and Cultural Incompatibility: A Red Team Study of Mutual Perceptions of Afghan National Security Force Personnel and US Soldiers in Understanding and Mitigating the Phenomena of ANSF- Committed Fratricide-Murders. In United States. Department of the Army. United States. Department of the Army. 1-70. Bowman, T., & Evstatieva, M 2021 . The Afghan Army Collapsed in Days Here Are the Reasons Why. NPR Bowman, T., & Evstatieva, M. (2021). The Afghan Army Collapsed in Days. Here Are the Reasons Why. NPR. Carter, M 2021 What America Didn’t Understand about Its Longest War, Politico olitico Carter, M. (2021). What America Didn’t Understand about Its Longest War, Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/07/06/Afghanistan-war-malkasian-book-excerpt-497843 Chas, D (August Chas, D. (August 17, 2021). “Why Afghanistan’s Security Forces Suddenly Collapsed,” New York Magazine. Condra, L. N., Felter, J. H., Iyengar, R. K., & Shapiro, J. N 2010 . The effect of civilian casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq (No w16152). National Bureau of Economic Research Condra, L. N., Felter, J. H., Iyengar, R. K., & Shapiro, J. N. (2010). The effect of civilian casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq (No. w16152). National Bureau of Economic Research. 10.3386/w16152 10.3386/w16152 Henderson, B (2012, August 27). US troops burned 100 copies of the Koran in Afghanistan. The Telegraph Henderson, B. (2012, August 27). US troops burned 100 copies of the Koran in Afghanistan. The Telegraph. Hewstone, M., Rubin, M., & Willis, H 2002 . Intergroup bias Annual review of psychology 53 1 575 604 Hewstone, M., Rubin, M., & Willis, H. (2002). Intergroup bias. Annual review of psychology, 53(1), 575-604. 10.1146/annurev.psych.53.100901.135109 10.1146/annurev.psych.53.100901.135109 Jonathan, S 2021 “The Mystery of Afghanistan’s Missing Military Leaders,” Politico olitico Jonathan, S. (2021). “The Mystery of Afghanistan’s Missing Military Leaders,” Politico. Lubold, G., & Trofimov, Y 2021 . Afghan Government Could Collapse Six Months After US Withdrawal, New Intelligence Assessment Says The Wall Street Journal Lubold, G., & Trofimov, Y. (2021). Afghan Government Could Collapse Six Months After US Withdrawal, New Intelligence Assessment Says. The Wall Street Journal, 23(06). Lyall, J., Blair, G., & Imai, K 2013 . Explaining support for combatants during wartime: A survey experiment in Afghanistan American political science review 107 4 679 705 Lyall, J., Blair, G., & Imai, K. (2013). Explaining support for combatants during wartime: A survey experiment in Afghanistan. American political science review, 107(4), 679-705. 10.1017/S0003055413000403 10.1017/S0003055413000403 Max, B 2021 “How the Afghan Army Collapsed Under the Taliban’s Pressure,” Council on Foreign Relations ressure Max, B. (2021). “How the Afghan Army Collapsed Under the Taliban’s Pressure,” Council on Foreign Relations. Mehdi, Z 2018 . Top Afghan commander’s killing raises questions Modern diplomacy Message of Islamic Emirate to the noble scholars of the Islamic World regarding the possible gathering of Scholars in Indonesia ossible Mehdi, Z. (2018). Top Afghan commander’s killing raises questions. Modern diplomacy Message of Islamic Emirate to the noble scholars of the Islamic World regarding the possible gathering of Scholars in Indonesia http://www.alemarah-english.org/?p=264478 Ministry Of Foreign Affairs 2022 Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, MoFA web page age Ministry Of Foreign Affairs. (2022). Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, MoFA web page. https://mfa.gov.af/en/minister-biography Moscow Conference 2019 Complete transcript of speech delivered by delegation of Islamic Emirate in Moscow Conference, February Moscow Conference. (2019). Complete transcript of speech delivered by delegation of Islamic Emirate in Moscow Conference, February 5, 2019 2019 http://alemarahenglish.com/?p=41268 Natasha, T., Abigail, N., & Amanda, M 2022 . ‘Intelligence failure of the highest order’ — How Afghanistan fell to the Taliban so quickly CNBC Natasha, T., Abigail, N., & Amanda, M. (2022). ‘Intelligence failure of the highest order’ — How Afghanistan fell to the Taliban so quickly. CNBC. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/how-Afghanistan-fell-to-the-taliban-so-quickly.html Nye, J. S 1994 . Peering into the Future Foreign Affairs 73 4 82 93 Nye, J. S. (1994). Peering into the Future. Foreign Affairs. 73(4), 82-93. 10.2307/20046745 10.2307/20046745 Pandya, A., & Laipson, E 2009 . Islam and politics: renewal and resistance in the Muslim World The Henry L. Stimson Center andya Pandya, A., & Laipson, E. (2009). Islam and politics: renewal and resistance in the Muslim World. The Henry L. Stimson Center. Reuters (August Reuters. (August 12, 2021). Taliban could take Afghan capital within 90 days after rapid gains -U.S. intelligence. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taliban-fighters-capture-eighth-provincial-capital-six-days-2021-08-11 Robert, B (August Robert, B. (August 17, 2021). Billions spent on Afghan army ultimately benefited Taliban. AP News. Sageman, M 2013 The problem of “green on blue” attacks In Afghanistan—FPRI roblem Sageman, M. (2013). The problem of “green on blue” attacks In Afghanistan—FPRI. https://www.fpri.org/multimedia/2013/05/the-problem-of-green-on-blueattacks-in-Afghanistan/ Shortland, N., Nader, E., Sari, H., Palasinski, M., & Hilland, C 2019 . Murder on Maneuver: Exploring green-on-blue attacks in Afghanistan Armed Forces & Society 45 2 368 388 Shortland, N., Nader, E., Sari, H., Palasinski, M., & Hilland, C. (2019). Murder on Maneuver: Exploring green-on-blue attacks in Afghanistan. Armed Forces & Society, 45(2), 368-388. 10.1177/0095327X17752425 10.1177/0095327X17752425 Sierakowska-Dyndo, J 2003 . Tribalism and Afghan political traditions Institute of Oriental Studies olitical Sierakowska-Dyndo, J. (2003). Tribalism and Afghan political traditions. Institute of Oriental Studies. Silberzahn, P., & Jones, M (2012, July). The Social Construction of Strategic Surprises: Learning from the CIA, 1947-2001. In Academy of Management Proceedings (Vol roceedings Silberzahn, P., & Jones, M. (2012, July). The Social Construction of Strategic Surprises: Learning from the CIA, 1947-2001. In Academy of Management Proceedings (Vol. 2012, No. 1, p. 16078). Briarcliff Manor, NY 10510: Academy of Management. Sopko, J. F 2016 . Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the US Experience in Afghanistan Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). Arlington United States. 1-164 Sopko, J. F. (2016). Corruption in Conflict: Lessons from the US Experience in Afghanistan. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). Arlington United States. 1-164. Sultan, -I-R 2006 . ‘Pukhtu: The Pukhtun Code of Life’ Pakistan Vision Lahore ukhtu Sultan, -I-R. (2006). ‘Pukhtu: The Pukhtun Code of Life’ Pakistan Vision. Lahore Susannah, G (August ost Susannah, G. (August 15, 2021). “Afghanistan’s Military Collapse: Illicit Deals and Mass Desertions,” Washington Post Tajfel, H 1970 . Experiments in intergroup discrimination Scientific American 223 5 96 103 Tajfel, H. (1970). Experiments in intergroup discrimination. Scientific American, 223(5), 96-103. Taliban Website 2018 Letter of the Islamic Emirate to the American people eople Taliban Website. (2018). Letter of the Islamic Emirate to the American people. http://www.alemarah-english.org/?p=25640 The White House 2021 . Statement by President Joe Biden on Afghanistan The United States Government resident The White House. (2021). Statement by President Joe Biden on Afghanistan. The United States Government. https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/08/14/statement-by-president-joe-biden-on-Afghanistan/ Tolo News (2020, February 27). Six-Member Govt Team En-Route to Doha to Meet Taliban Tom Bowman and Monika Evstatieva, “The Afghan Army Collapsed In Days. Here Are The Reasons Why,” NPR, August Tolo News. (2020, February 27). Six-Member Govt Team En-Route to Doha to Meet Taliban Tom Bowman and Monika Evstatieva, “The Afghan Army Collapsed In Days. Here Are The Reasons Why,” NPR, August 20, 2021; Torabi, Y 2012 . The Growing Challenge of Corruption in Afghanistan Reflections on a Survey of the Afghan People, Part 3 of eople Torabi, Y. (2012). The Growing Challenge of Corruption in Afghanistan. Reflections on a Survey of the Afghan People, Part 3 of, 4