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  <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">67</journal-id>
  <journal-id journal-id-type="short-title">gfpr</journal-id>
  <journal-id journal-id-type="doi">10.31703/gfpr</journal-id>
  <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Global Foreign Policies Review</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">gfpr</abbrev-journal-title>
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  <issn publication-format="print">2788-502X</issn>
  <issn publication-format="electronic">2788-5038</issn>
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    <publisher-name>Humanity Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Pakistan</publisher-loc>
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<article-meta>
  <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">395724</article-id>
  <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.31703/gfpr.2024(VII-II).01</article-id>
  <article-id pub-id-type="other" specific-use="submission-id">6191</article-id>
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  <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Cognitive Bias and Crisis Signaling: The Psychological Drivers of Foreign Policy Decisions</article-title>
  </title-group>
<contrib-group>
  <contrib contrib-type="author" seq="1" corresp="yes">
    <name>
      <surname>Khan</surname>
      <given-names>Muhammad Dawood</given-names>
    </name>
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    <xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"/>
  </contrib>
  <aff id="aff1">
    <label>1</label>
    <institution-wrap>
      <institution>Graduate, Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick</institution>
    </institution-wrap>
    <addr-line>Coventry</addr-line>
    <country>United Kingdom</country>
  </aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
  <corresp id="cor1">Corresponding Author: Muhammad Dawood Khan, Graduate, Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.</corresp>
<fn fn-type="COI-statement" id="fn-coi">
  <p>The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="ethics-statement" id="fn-ethics">
  <p>This study did not require formal ethics approval.</p>
</fn>
<fn fn-type="data-availability-statement" id="fn-data">
  <p>Data sharing is not applicable to this article.</p>
</fn>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="epub" date-type="pub" publication-format="electronic">
  <day>30</day>
  <month>06</month>
  <year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="collection">
  <month>06</month>
  <year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date date-type="pub" publication-format="print">
  <day>18</day>
  <month>11</month>
  <year>2024</year>
</pub-date>
  <volume>7</volume>
  <issue>2</issue>
  <season>Spring</season>
  <fpage>1</fpage>
  <lpage>6</lpage>
  <history>
    <date date-type="accepted">
      <day>18</day>
      <month>11</month>
      <year>2024</year>
    </date>
  </history>
<funding-group>
  <funding-statement>
<p>The authors received no specific funding for this work.</p>
  </funding-statement>
</funding-group>
<permissions>
  <copyright-year>2024</copyright-year>
  <copyright-holder>Humanity Publications</copyright-holder>
  <license license-type="open-access" xml:lang="en" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
    <license-p>This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.</license-p>
  </license>
</permissions>
<self-uri content-type="text/html" xlink:href="https://gfprjournal.com/article/cognitive-bias-and-crisis-signaling-the-psychological-drivers-of-foreign-policy-decisions"/>
<self-uri content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://gfprjournal.com/pdf/gfpr/wORgLleXBX.pdf"/>
<supplementary-material id="suppl-pdf" content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://gfprjournal.com/pdf/gfpr/wORgLleXBX.pdf">
  <label>PDF</label>
  <caption>
    <title>Full Text PDF</title>
  </caption>
</supplementary-material>
  <abstract>
    <p>This paper extrapolates the extent to which political psychology, with special reference to cognitive biases and motivated reasoning, transforms the foreign policy decision makers&apos; ability to signal resolution during international crises. Based on the theoretical contributions from Jervis, Kahneman, and Mercer, the paper investigates how various psychological factors, such as the emotional association with prior beliefs and distortions such as overconfidence, can have a strong influence on communication between adversaries. By making use of a qualitative and interpretive framework, the paper develops strong psychological insights into the theories of international relations by making a strong challenge to the premises of the rationalist bargaining model. The paper concludes by analyzing the limitations of rationalist models and the utmost need to integrate psychological variables into the study of strategic communication.</p>
  </abstract>
<kwd-group kwd-group-type="author-keywords">
  <kwd>Political Psychology</kwd>
  <kwd>Cognitive Bias</kwd>
  <kwd>Motivated Reasoning</kwd>
  <kwd>Foreign Policy</kwd>
  <kwd>Rationalist Bargaining Model</kwd>
  <kwd>Crisis Signaling</kwd>
</kwd-group>
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</front>
<body>
  <sec id="sec-intro">
    <title>Content</title>
    <p>This paper extrapolates the extent to which political psychology, with special reference to cognitive biases and motivated reasoning, transforms the foreign policy decision makers&apos; ability to signal resolution during international crises. Based on the theoretical contributions from Jervis, Kahneman, and Mercer, the paper investigates how various psychological factors, such as the emotional association with prior beliefs and distortions such as overconfidence, can have a strong influence on communication between adversaries. By making use of a qualitative and interpretive framework, the paper develops strong psychological insights into the theories of international relations by making a strong challenge to the premises of the rationalist bargaining model. The paper concludes by analyzing the limitations of rationalist models and the utmost need to integrate psychological variables into the study of strategic communication.</p>
  </sec>
</body>
<back>
<fn-group content-type="conflict-of-interest">
  <title>Conflict of Interest</title>
  <fn fn-type="conflict">
<p>The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.</p>
  </fn>
</fn-group>
<fn-group content-type="ethics-statement">
  <title>Ethics Statement</title>
  <fn fn-type="ethics">
<p>This study did not require formal ethics approval.</p>
  </fn>
</fn-group>
<fn-group content-type="data-availability">
  <title>Data Availability</title>
  <fn fn-type="data-availability-statement">
<p>Data sharing is not applicable to this article.</p>
  </fn>
</fn-group>
<app-group>
  <app id="app-suppl">
    <title>Supplementary Materials</title>
<supplementary-material id="suppl-pdf" content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://gfprjournal.com/pdf/gfpr/wORgLleXBX.pdf">
  <label>PDF</label>
  <caption>
    <title>Full Text PDF</title>
  </caption>
</supplementary-material>
  </app>
</app-group>
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</article>