COGNITIVE BIAS AND CRISIS SIGNALING THE PSYCHOLOGICAL DRIVERS OF FOREIGN POLICY DECISIONS

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gfpr.2024(VII-II).01      10.31703/gfpr.2024(VII-II).01      Published : Jun 2024
Authored by : MuhammadDawoodKhan

01 Pages : 1-6

http://dx.doi.org/10.31703/gfpr.2024(VII-II).01      10.31703/gfpr.2024(VII-II).01      Published : Jun 2024

Cognitive Bias and Crisis Signaling: The Psychological Drivers of Foreign Policy Decisions

    This paper extrapolates the extent to which political psychology, with special reference to cognitive biases and motivated reasoning, transforms the foreign policy decision makers' ability to signal resolution during international crises. Based on the theoretical contributions from Jervis, Kahneman, and Mercer, the paper investigates how various psychological factors, such as the emotional association with prior beliefs and distortions such as overconfidence, can have a strong influence on communication between adversaries. By making use of a qualitative and interpretive framework, the paper develops strong psychological insights into the theories of international relations by making a strong challenge to the premises of the rationalist bargaining model. The paper concludes by analyzing the limitations of rationalist models and the utmost need to integrate psychological variables into the study of strategic communication.

    Political Psychology, Cognitive Bias, Motivated Reasoning, Foreign Policy, Rationalist Bargaining Model, Crisis Signaling
    (1) Muhammad Dawood Khan
    Graduate, Department of Politics and International Studies, University of Warwick, Coventry, United Kingdom.
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Cite this article

    CHICAGO : Khan, Muhammad Dawood. 2024. "Cognitive Bias and Crisis Signaling: The Psychological Drivers of Foreign Policy Decisions." Global Foreign Policies Review, VII (II): 1-6 doi: 10.31703/gfpr.2024(VII-II).01
    HARVARD : KHAN, M. D. 2024. Cognitive Bias and Crisis Signaling: The Psychological Drivers of Foreign Policy Decisions. Global Foreign Policies Review, VII, 1-6.
    MHRA : Khan, Muhammad Dawood. 2024. "Cognitive Bias and Crisis Signaling: The Psychological Drivers of Foreign Policy Decisions." Global Foreign Policies Review, VII: 1-6
    MLA : Khan, Muhammad Dawood. "Cognitive Bias and Crisis Signaling: The Psychological Drivers of Foreign Policy Decisions." Global Foreign Policies Review, VII.II (2024): 1-6 Print.
    OXFORD : Khan, Muhammad Dawood (2024), "Cognitive Bias and Crisis Signaling: The Psychological Drivers of Foreign Policy Decisions", Global Foreign Policies Review, VII (II), 1-6
    TURABIAN : Khan, Muhammad Dawood. "Cognitive Bias and Crisis Signaling: The Psychological Drivers of Foreign Policy Decisions." Global Foreign Policies Review VII, no. II (2024): 1-6. https://doi.org/10.31703/gfpr.2024(VII-II).01